Last weekend saw the Mardi Gras Parade take over Sydney, with both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten coming to the parade – although Turnbull was just a spectator, and Shorten actually marched with other Labor Party members. On the Sunday, George Brandis announced that the planned plebiscite could happen by the end of the year, and then there was some confusion as Turnbull’s office sort of began backtracking on it. It seems that the idea was to have it shortly after the next election, and if that election is in September or October then the plebiscite won’t happen this year, but if it comes earlier, then what Brandis said kind of fits…
Cue logical jump from political analysts and commentators.
The rest of the week was spent with the Press Gallery focusing on when the election would be and whether it would be a Double Dissolution election. Now this is where it gets wordy and complicated. Bear with me.
The theory is that the last possible date for a double dissolution election is July 2, meaning Turnbull would have to call an election on May 11 at the latest for that date to be possible. That would be the day after the current planned date of the 2016 Budget on May 10 and the issue and it is highly unlikely that parliament will pass budget bills in less than 24 hours, meaning a supply bill won’t have time to be passed and the government will run out of money in June or July. So, if the July 2 plan is the one Turnbull is going with, then the budget will probably be moved forward to the week before (May 3) and in order to keep the public servants, number crunchers and journalists happy, they’ll actually need to give them warning about the date change – so we’ll find out too, essentially telling us the government’s plans.
The other option is to hold out till September/October for the full term of government, but that does leave the government, should the Liberals win again, with what they see as a “feral” and “hostile” Senate, with cross benchers like Jacqui Lambie, Glenn Lazarus and Ricky Muir for three more years. The understanding was they wanted to kind of, well, get rid of them with the new Senate reforms that the Liberals will be, as I’m understanding it, able to pass thanks to the Greens and Nick Xenophon.
It seems though, from what was said on the ABC, this coming week is going to be the week they decide to change (or not change) the date of the Budget, indicating what their plan is. If they take the Double Dissolution option, then they sort of need a trigger, and the government has suggested two. The catch? One has not been listed for debate in parliament yet, and the other isn’t even written yet. Watch this space.
Meanwhile, Bronwyn Bishop’s seat of Mackellar is in for a big fight, with six people contesting Bishop for preselection. Bishop has held the seat for years and at 73, some people think she should go quietly and calmly. However, it’s understood that Bishop has a very tight grip on the people who vote in preselections and most of them are likely to vote for her. It’s so dodgy and her grip is so tight, that it’s believed preselection challenger #7 dropped out.
Meanwhile, Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce has a tough run in New England coming up after former New England MP, Tony Windsor announced his comeback. Joyce is confident of his return, especially if the seat is fought on mining (Windsor is known to have sold his land to a mining company for a lot of money). However, mining is not the only focus in the seat, and Windsor may win if other issues take precedence.
The government has announced that they will update the Collins class submarines, as they will need to be used for up to 20 more years until the new submarines are made. Meanwhile, China is becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the defence relationship between Australia and the USA, with American B-1 Bombers being stationed in the Top End. China has warned Australia and the USA not to target a “third country”, essentially telling them that they shouldn’t be targeting China over it’s claims in the South China Sea.
Finally this week, the nerds have calculated that Labor needs to win 21 seats and have a swing of over 4.5% to win the next election; there are proposed changes to HECS repayments, such as the income threshold being decreased; and Clive Palmer’s Queensland Nickel company has gone down the drain and another company affiliated to Palmer has bought the refinery, applied for environmental permits, but is yet to employ the 500-ish QNI employees in limbo.
Tweet of the Week
In the next instalment of “Fashion Advice for Female TV Presenters”….
Things I’ve Been Looking at Online
Antony Green on the Turnbull Government’s options – ABC Elections
Antony Green explains terms in the Senate after a Double Dissolution – ABC Elections
The extent of Peta Credlin’s involvement in the Abbott Prime Ministership – The Guardian
Mark Di Stefano explains the whole Peta Credlin thing – Buzzfeed
Kara L 